***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 20.0 21.8 3.3 99.2 96.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 17.4 21.2 21.7 3.4 99.3 97.2 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 19.5 23.2 21.9 3.4 99.5 97.6 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 15.0 17.7 19.1 2.4 97.7 94.7 12.4 13.3 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 16.0 18.5 19.2 2.5 98.4 95.7 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 14.6 15.8 16.5 1.9 93.6 89.0 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 17.5 21.1 22.0 3.5 99.4 97.8 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 10.7 13.4 17.2 2.6 98.3 95.7 8.3 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 17.1 19.6 19.8 2.6 98.7 95.9 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 17.0 19.3 18.1 2.6 98.4 96.0 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 16.6 18.5 18.5 2.2 97.3 94.5 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 14.7 16.3 17.7 2.3 97.4 94.8 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 15.6 16.3 16.3 1.1 84.6 75.2 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 17.6 20.1 19.8 2.8 98.8 97.1 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 18.1 19.7 20.4 2.2 96.4 94.0 16.2 16.9 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 17.4 18.7 17.6 1.6 92.0 85.6 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 17.8 21.3 21.4 3.5 99.5 98.0 15.5 16.3 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 15.5 17.4 16.6 2.1 96.4 93.0 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 17.3 20.6 21.8 3.5 99.4 97.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 11.3 13.2 14.9 2.4 97.0 94.5 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 16.8 19.7 21.2 3.0 99.2 96.8 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 16.7 19.9 21.8 3.8 99.6 98.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 16.7 20.1 21.7 3.5 99.6 98.4 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 17.3 19.6 19.4 2.7 98.3 95.9 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 17.2 20.2 20.4 2.8 98.8 95.4 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 15.7 16.2 15.9 1.1 79.8 74.2 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 17.9 21.7 20.9 3.0 98.8 95.0 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 15.9 17.4 19.3 2.0 95.0 91.1 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 14.5 16.8 16.2 2.4 97.2 94.4 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 17.7 21.3 22.0 3.4 99.2 97.1 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------