***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9999.0 17.7 19.2 1.9 85.1 73.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 16.3 17.0 19.0 1.6 79.9 70.6 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 18.9 19.9 19.1 1.9 85.3 74.6 16.5 17.5 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 14.7 15.4 16.8 1.3 78.3 70.9 12.2 13.4 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 14.3 14.9 16.6 1.4 80.1 72.2 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.4 13.7 14.7 1.2 76.4 70.6 11.9 12.6 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 16.5 17.2 19.0 1.6 79.3 70.2 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 9.7 10.3 14.8 1.4 80.3 71.8 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 15.8 16.5 17.2 1.7 84.3 74.8 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 15.5 16.0 15.4 1.5 81.2 72.6 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 14.9 15.5 16.2 1.5 81.7 73.5 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 13.2 13.7 15.7 1.5 82.3 73.9 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 14.2 14.6 14.9 1.3 78.9 72.9 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 16.4 16.9 16.9 1.5 80.7 71.4 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 16.9 17.6 17.9 1.6 82.7 74.4 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 16.1 16.6 15.7 1.3 79.4 72.6 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 16.7 17.1 18.2 1.4 76.2 67.3 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.2 14.5 1.3 78.8 70.8 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 16.2 16.9 19.0 1.7 81.8 71.9 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 9.6 9.8 12.8 1.1 73.7 66.8 8.2 8.9 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 15.5 16.3 18.3 1.8 85.0 74.7 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 15.5 16.0 18.2 1.4 77.3 68.3 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 15.6 16.3 18.7 1.8 84.0 73.6 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 15.9 16.6 16.8 1.6 82.7 73.1 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 15.9 16.8 17.6 1.8 85.3 74.4 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 14.6 14.7 14.9 1.0 72.6 68.1 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 16.9 18.0 18.3 1.8 84.6 73.6 14.1 15.3 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 14.3 14.7 17.2 1.3 78.3 71.3 12.6 13.4 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 14.0 14.5 13.9 1.3 77.3 69.8 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 16.8 17.5 19.2 1.7 81.9 72.1 14.5 15.5 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------