***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 16.1 17.8 1.3 75.1 68.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 14.8 15.0 17.6 1.1 72.2 66.1 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 17.1 17.6 17.7 1.4 78.2 70.6 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 12.5 12.6 15.7 1.0 71.1 65.8 10.1 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 13.8 14.0 15.4 1.1 73.8 67.8 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 12.8 12.9 13.7 1.0 72.9 67.5 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.1 15.1 17.6 1.0 70.7 65.1 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 8.2 8.5 13.7 1.1 75.3 68.6 6.2 7.1 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 14.9 15.3 15.9 1.3 77.7 70.7 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 14.6 15.0 14.2 1.2 77.0 69.9 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 14.4 14.8 15.1 1.2 77.9 70.6 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 12.7 13.0 14.6 1.2 75.9 69.4 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 13.8 14.0 13.9 1.0 72.4 67.2 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 15.4 15.8 15.8 1.3 78.0 71.3 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.4 16.7 1.3 77.2 70.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 15.3 15.6 14.7 1.1 74.7 68.6 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 15.3 15.2 16.9 0.9 69.0 64.0 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 13.2 13.5 13.4 1.1 75.8 69.2 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 14.9 15.2 17.6 1.2 75.0 68.4 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 9.3 9.3 11.8 0.9 70.3 64.8 7.6 8.4 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 14.6 14.9 16.9 1.3 76.8 69.7 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 14.3 14.3 16.9 1.0 72.3 66.3 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 14.4 14.9 17.4 1.4 78.9 71.7 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 15.0 15.4 15.6 1.3 79.1 71.8 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 14.8 15.1 16.2 1.2 74.5 68.0 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.7 14.0 0.8 67.1 63.7 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 15.2 15.4 16.9 1.2 73.9 67.5 12.7 13.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 13.8 14.0 16.1 1.0 73.0 67.1 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 12.3 12.6 12.9 1.1 75.4 68.7 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 15.3 15.5 17.8 1.2 73.8 67.3 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------