***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 32.6 31.3 3.1 89.7 77.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 31.0 32.6 31.1 2.8 88.0 74.5 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 31.2 32.8 31.4 3.0 89.2 76.1 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 24.5 25.8 29.8 2.7 85.6 76.1 21.3 22.6 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 32.0 33.5 29.7 2.9 86.6 76.3 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.7 27.4 2.7 84.9 76.6 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 30.7 32.3 30.9 2.8 88.2 74.9 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 19.5 20.9 28.0 2.9 86.5 75.9 16.6 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 31.2 32.9 30.1 3.1 88.6 77.1 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 31.0 32.6 28.7 3.0 87.8 76.4 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 31.5 33.2 29.3 3.0 87.6 77.2 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 30.7 32.2 29.2 3.0 86.9 76.8 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 31.9 33.4 28.8 3.0 85.9 76.8 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 30.9 32.7 29.3 2.8 88.3 74.6 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 31.9 33.3 30.5 2.8 87.7 78.6 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 32.6 34.1 29.2 2.9 86.1 76.7 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 30.4 32.0 30.6 2.7 88.0 74.4 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 29.9 31.4 27.7 2.9 87.2 74.9 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 30.7 32.4 31.3 2.9 88.4 74.8 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 26.0 27.2 25.4 2.6 84.1 73.1 22.9 24.3 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 31.3 32.9 30.9 3.0 88.7 76.9 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 31.1 32.7 30.6 2.7 87.6 74.2 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 30.8 32.5 31.1 3.0 89.1 75.2 28.0 29.1 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 30.6 32.4 29.4 3.0 88.7 75.5 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 31.5 33.2 30.0 3.0 89.5 77.8 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 31.4 32.6 28.5 2.5 82.2 74.0 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 31.0 32.8 30.4 3.0 89.9 77.3 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 32.0 33.1 30.0 2.7 85.3 76.4 29.0 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 25.5 27.1 26.6 2.8 86.7 74.3 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 30.9 32.6 31.3 2.9 88.4 75.1 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------