***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 9999.0 31.8 31.3 3.3 97.9 92.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 29.8 32.3 31.3 3.3 97.6 91.5 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 29.9 32.6 31.4 3.3 98.2 92.6 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 23.4 25.5 29.4 2.7 95.1 89.1 20.7 21.7 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 30.9 33.3 29.6 3.0 96.6 90.8 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 29.5 31.1 26.8 2.4 92.9 86.4 26.8 27.8 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 29.5 31.9 31.0 3.2 97.5 91.4 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 18.7 20.8 27.6 2.9 96.1 89.5 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 30.0 32.6 30.1 3.2 97.8 92.1 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 29.9 32.5 28.5 3.1 97.5 91.3 27.4 28.3 29.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 30.5 32.9 29.1 3.0 96.8 91.1 27.8 28.8 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 29.7 32.0 28.8 2.9 95.9 89.8 27.1 28.1 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 30.9 33.0 28.4 2.8 95.0 88.9 28.1 29.2 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 29.8 32.8 29.5 3.3 98.4 92.0 27.2 28.2 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 30.8 32.9 30.3 2.7 95.5 89.9 28.3 29.3 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 31.5 33.8 28.9 2.8 95.5 89.5 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 29.1 31.6 30.8 3.2 97.8 91.3 26.8 27.7 28.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 28.9 31.4 27.6 3.1 97.7 90.8 26.4 27.3 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 29.6 32.4 31.5 3.3 98.0 92.0 27.1 28.0 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 25.1 27.3 25.2 2.7 95.8 88.0 22.5 23.4 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 30.1 32.8 30.9 3.2 97.8 92.1 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 29.6 32.3 30.9 3.3 97.9 91.4 27.3 28.2 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 29.6 32.3 31.3 3.4 98.4 92.5 27.3 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 29.4 32.3 29.4 3.3 98.3 92.0 27.0 27.9 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 30.4 33.0 29.9 3.2 97.4 91.8 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 30.4 32.1 28.1 2.4 92.2 85.6 27.8 28.8 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 29.8 32.3 30.4 3.2 97.7 91.9 27.4 28.3 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 30.9 32.8 29.7 2.6 94.4 88.3 28.3 29.3 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 24.5 27.3 26.6 3.1 97.7 90.5 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 29.8 32.3 31.5 3.3 97.6 91.7 27.3 28.2 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------