***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 9999.0 0.2 1.8 14.9 16.4 11.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 2.0 2.0 2.3 20.8 21.7 15.2 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 1.8 1.1 1.8 15.4 15.7 10.9 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 2.8 1.5 1.6 12.8 13.2 9.7 5.7 11.4 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 2.1 1.5 1.8 14.3 16.6 11.2 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 2.5 2.3 2.4 19.6 19.7 13.1 5.0 10.0 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 1.8 1.4 2.1 18.4 19.3 14.2 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 3.6 3.4 2.7 20.7 21.6 13.8 6.4 11.9 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 2.6 1.8 1.8 14.8 16.4 11.1 4.8 9.3 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 2.8 2.2 2.5 17.0 18.1 12.1 5.2 10.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 3.3 3.3 1.9 17.3 20.7 12.8 5.7 10.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 2.6 2.9 2.3 21.7 24.4 14.3 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 90 10 0 100 1.3 1.3 2.2 19.7 20.6 13.0 3.0 7.3 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 2.2 2.0 2.8 19.6 20.3 14.2 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 1.8 1.3 1.5 13.0 15.1 9.4 4.4 9.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 2.3 2.1 2.0 17.6 19.5 12.8 4.2 7.9 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 2.0 1.7 2.3 21.1 22.2 16.0 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 90 10 0 100 2.7 2.0 2.9 17.8 16.6 11.9 5.0 9.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 2.2 2.0 2.3 20.3 21.2 14.4 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 2.6 2.1 3.5 21.9 19.0 13.9 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 2.5 1.5 1.5 12.6 14.0 10.1 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 2.4 2.3 2.4 20.8 23.4 15.9 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 1.9 1.6 2.3 18.6 20.1 13.4 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 2.8 2.0 2.4 16.9 17.5 12.0 5.3 11.1 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 93 7 0 100 1.8 0.7 1.5 10.7 10.7 8.7 3.8 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 2.3 2.5 2.2 22.8 22.1 13.7 4.7 8.9 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 2.8 1.8 1.9 13.7 14.2 10.6 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 1.6 1.1 1.7 14.6 16.9 10.7 3.6 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 4.6 3.9 3.3 20.2 17.6 12.9 7.9 13.6 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 1.4 1.1 2.1 18.6 19.8 13.8 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------