***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 12.4 8.2 112.9 69.2 38.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.0 12.0 8.2 120.8 70.9 42.6 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.4 11.3 7.8 111.9 68.9 40.4 2.5 5.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 1.6 7.5 7.4 95.8 64.3 38.2 1.8 4.2 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 1.1 4.8 7.2 88.8 61.6 35.9 1.4 3.0 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 1.7 6.8 8.6 94.1 62.8 40.1 1.8 4.2 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.1 9.1 8.2 110.6 68.0 42.2 1.9 4.4 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 3.3 9.9 6.9 78.5 56.8 35.5 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 1.7 6.7 7.7 92.7 62.8 35.9 2.0 4.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 2.6 9.7 8.2 87.8 60.6 36.3 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 1.4 4.6 5.7 78.9 57.3 33.8 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 1.4 4.5 5.0 74.3 55.9 34.3 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 1.2 4.3 6.3 84.2 59.9 36.1 1.4 3.0 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 3.9 14.8 10.5 115.3 69.5 42.2 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.6 7.9 6.6 107.2 67.2 38.8 1.7 3.9 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 0.9 3.6 5.9 84.0 59.3 35.6 1.1 2.5 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.6 7.5 8.7 125.9 71.9 42.4 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 2.5 8.3 10.6 97.9 64.2 38.9 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.3 12.0 8.3 129.1 72.9 42.6 2.7 5.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 2.8 9.0 10.5 88.5 60.0 37.8 3.0 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 2.2 10.7 7.5 103.2 66.3 36.6 2.6 5.7 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 1.7 8.2 8.5 128.2 72.4 40.3 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.3 11.1 9.0 134.6 74.1 42.4 2.8 5.1 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.5 12.9 9.8 107.1 67.4 40.5 3.9 7.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.1 8.9 9.5 106.9 67.6 40.8 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 1.5 5.0 5.0 80.6 58.9 35.7 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.9 13.3 9.6 110.8 68.6 40.5 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 1.4 6.3 6.8 100.7 65.1 37.4 1.5 3.5 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 2.9 10.1 11.0 98.2 63.7 38.5 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.5 13.3 8.0 116.8 70.2 42.6 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------