***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 10.9 4.6 67.9 54.3 34.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.4 9.2 4.5 60.1 49.9 34.9 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 4.1 12.8 5.4 74.6 56.0 35.8 4.5 10.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.7 15.5 5.6 83.7 61.1 38.3 4.9 10.4 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 5.0 15.4 6.0 80.4 59.5 37.9 5.3 11.1 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 4.2 17.6 9.3 115.4 70.5 39.6 4.5 8.9 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.4 6.6 4.4 60.1 50.1 35.5 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 7.9 24.6 7.6 89.5 62.7 39.8 8.9 16.5 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 5.4 16.9 7.0 87.2 61.2 37.9 6.5 12.1 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 5.6 19.0 8.1 88.8 62.1 39.0 6.6 12.7 21.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 4.5 13.1 5.2 74.4 57.0 35.0 5.7 10.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.3 11.5 5.3 80.0 59.5 36.7 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.9 14.8 6.3 87.9 63.1 38.4 4.4 9.2 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 5.0 17.3 7.8 81.7 58.8 39.3 5.9 12.2 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.8 9.1 5.8 120.1 71.0 38.3 1.8 4.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 3.5 13.1 5.3 78.4 59.2 36.4 4.2 9.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 5.6 9.6 4.2 58.3 49.3 35.4 5.7 9.8 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.9 14.3 9.9 88.8 61.8 40.5 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.2 9.2 4.9 65.2 52.2 35.1 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 8.1 18.8 10.4 87.1 61.7 42.7 8.8 14.1 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 4.3 12.6 5.6 78.3 57.6 35.4 4.9 9.6 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 5.6 9.9 4.3 59.3 49.5 35.6 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 4.6 12.1 5.6 74.5 56.1 36.0 4.7 9.8 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 5.6 19.0 8.3 86.2 60.6 39.4 6.3 13.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.2 12.0 5.5 72.6 56.3 36.5 3.9 9.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.8 13.1 5.7 95.2 65.3 39.4 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.4 12.0 5.4 72.1 56.2 36.3 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 3.0 11.0 5.7 96.3 64.9 37.9 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 8.7 23.5 10.2 86.7 61.3 40.9 9.1 16.6 27.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 4.3 9.2 4.7 64.2 52.1 35.4 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------