***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 9999.0 23.6 18.6 57.9 34.8 29.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 23.7 30.4 20.3 64.2 37.8 32.7 27.2 39.5 53.7 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 26.8 31.3 19.4 60.0 33.8 29.2 30.9 44.5 60.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 28.6 34.8 18.6 56.1 32.7 27.7 34.8 48.9 64.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 17.0 19.6 18.9 55.4 31.8 27.3 20.2 31.7 46.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 26.0 35.0 26.2 68.9 41.0 34.0 29.9 41.5 55.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 19.8 25.2 20.1 61.7 35.6 31.6 23.6 35.1 48.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 39.6 47.4 22.4 59.3 34.2 30.1 46.3 62.7 81.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 23.9 28.1 20.5 58.1 32.6 27.9 28.4 42.2 58.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 36.3 41.3 24.1 59.6 32.4 29.0 41.5 53.0 65.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 22.4 25.1 16.2 52.2 30.9 27.2 26.5 37.6 50.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 20.2 24.8 16.3 54.6 34.5 29.4 24.1 33.6 44.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 18.4 24.7 19.4 59.3 36.5 31.1 22.3 34.5 49.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 36.5 43.8 27.3 65.6 37.0 32.8 40.2 55.8 73.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 15.1 20.2 17.0 61.4 39.0 30.7 16.6 28.2 43.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 21.6 26.3 17.0 54.6 33.5 29.0 26.1 36.1 47.7 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 25.9 32.8 21.2 66.0 38.6 33.1 29.6 39.8 51.6 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 29.5 33.9 30.1 63.5 32.8 30.3 33.9 45.5 58.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 21.7 29.1 20.5 65.2 38.7 32.9 25.0 38.0 53.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 32.7 39.1 32.1 64.7 34.6 31.7 38.0 50.4 64.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 25.5 29.8 18.1 56.2 32.0 27.2 30.5 43.5 58.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 30.6 37.2 20.8 64.1 36.8 31.5 35.0 45.1 56.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 21.7 29.8 21.8 66.2 39.3 33.1 25.4 38.4 53.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 37.1 42.9 26.1 63.7 34.1 30.6 41.9 56.6 72.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 23.6 27.4 20.8 56.4 31.8 27.7 28.2 39.9 53.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 19.5 25.3 16.7 60.0 38.8 32.2 21.9 32.5 45.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 27.0 32.4 21.5 58.5 34.1 29.5 31.5 44.6 60.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 17.0 21.9 17.8 58.9 36.0 29.3 20.1 31.0 44.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 42.1 48.2 31.6 64.8 33.4 31.1 48.0 62.8 79.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 22.2 27.1 19.8 62.2 36.6 31.6 25.3 35.1 46.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------