***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.3 15.5 18.5 -0.6 38.9 39.4 15.2 16.0 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.1 18.3 -0.6 39.5 40.0 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.2 17.5 18.7 -0.5 40.8 41.2 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.1 16.2 -0.2 45.1 45.2 12.4 13.3 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 14.9 14.2 16.8 -0.4 41.2 41.5 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.8 13.3 13.9 -0.3 42.1 42.5 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.2 15.3 18.3 -0.6 38.8 39.2 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.0 8.3 13.7 -0.8 32.7 33.7 8.3 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.0 16.6 -0.8 32.9 33.8 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.8 15.0 14.7 -0.8 33.2 34.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 14.3 14.4 16.0 -1.2 27.4 28.2 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 12.9 13.0 14.9 -0.9 32.9 33.8 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 13.7 13.8 14.8 -1.0 27.0 28.1 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.5 15.9 16.5 -0.4 40.4 40.9 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 16.0 16.2 17.9 -0.8 33.6 34.2 16.2 16.9 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 15.3 15.5 15.7 -0.7 34.3 35.1 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 16.6 16.0 18.1 -0.4 42.5 42.8 15.5 16.3 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.4 13.7 14.2 -0.5 39.7 40.2 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 16.1 15.3 18.4 -0.6 39.7 40.1 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 10.3 9.8 12.5 -0.3 43.5 43.8 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.8 14.9 17.8 -0.7 36.1 36.7 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 15.6 15.1 18.4 -0.3 44.1 44.3 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.5 14.8 18.3 -0.6 38.5 39.0 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.3 15.6 16.5 -0.5 39.5 40.1 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.1 17.5 -0.7 36.7 37.3 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 15.0 14.7 14.4 -0.3 44.0 44.4 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 16.3 15.4 18.1 -0.5 40.8 41.2 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.3 16.6 -0.4 41.6 41.9 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.4 13.3 -0.6 36.0 36.8 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.4 15.4 18.5 -0.6 38.6 39.1 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------