***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.8 18.4 0.3 55.4 53.6 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.5 18.0 0.2 53.8 52.3 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.3 18.7 0.4 57.1 54.7 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.7 16.4 0.7 64.2 59.5 12.8 13.8 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.4 16.5 0.4 58.0 55.2 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 13.8 13.8 14.5 0.8 67.3 62.6 12.5 13.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.8 18.0 0.1 51.4 50.5 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.4 14.2 0.5 59.7 56.7 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.6 16.7 0.5 59.5 56.6 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.6 15.0 0.5 60.7 57.5 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.8 16.0 0.1 52.6 51.4 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.2 15.3 0.4 58.4 56.0 12.2 12.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.1 14.6 0.1 52.8 52.1 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.1 16.3 0.5 60.7 57.7 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.8 18.3 0.7 63.6 59.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.0 15.5 0.3 55.7 53.8 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.3 17.7 0.2 54.6 53.1 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.9 14.2 0.5 61.7 58.4 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.7 18.1 0.2 54.7 53.0 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.9 12.3 0.6 63.1 59.5 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.3 17.7 0.3 56.5 54.1 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.1 17.8 0.2 55.3 53.9 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.1 18.2 0.2 55.1 53.3 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.8 16.3 0.5 60.1 57.1 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.5 17.4 0.3 56.0 53.6 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.9 14.6 0.7 64.5 61.0 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.0 17.9 0.3 56.2 53.9 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.6 16.9 0.8 65.6 60.9 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.7 13.5 0.5 61.4 58.1 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.9 18.3 0.1 52.7 51.4 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------