***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 12.8 13.9 16.8 -0.1 48.0 47.5 13.1 14.0 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 12.4 13.6 16.5 -0.1 48.7 47.8 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 14.6 15.9 17.2 0.1 51.4 49.8 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.9 11.7 14.8 0.4 57.2 54.7 10.1 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.8 14.6 0.1 52.0 51.4 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.2 13.1 0.4 58.0 56.8 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 12.7 13.7 16.6 -0.2 46.9 46.6 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.4 12.8 0.3 55.1 54.4 6.2 7.1 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.0 14.7 0.2 53.7 52.6 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.9 13.4 0.3 55.8 54.6 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.4 14.3 0.1 52.3 52.3 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.9 13.5 0.2 53.6 53.5 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.0 12.6 0.1 52.7 53.1 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.3 14.5 0.0 50.6 50.1 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.4 16.2 0.4 58.0 55.2 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.5 13.6 0.2 54.8 54.2 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.2 14.2 16.2 -0.1 48.8 47.9 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.5 12.4 0.3 56.8 55.3 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.9 16.7 0.0 49.4 48.2 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.7 10.4 0.3 56.9 56.0 7.6 8.4 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 12.5 13.5 16.0 0.1 51.0 50.1 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 12.3 13.2 16.2 0.0 49.7 48.4 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 12.4 13.3 16.6 -0.1 48.8 47.9 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.0 14.4 0.2 53.7 52.4 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 12.6 13.7 15.4 0.0 49.5 48.9 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.2 12.7 0.3 57.0 55.8 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 12.4 13.7 16.0 -0.1 48.9 48.3 12.7 13.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.2 15.2 0.5 59.3 56.4 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.5 12.0 0.3 56.8 55.4 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 12.8 14.0 16.8 -0.1 48.3 47.5 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------