***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.1 17.7 -0.2 45.0 45.2 14.7 15.2 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 14.2 14.7 17.4 -0.2 43.8 43.9 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.2 18.0 -0.1 47.3 46.8 16.8 17.3 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.2 15.6 0.2 56.9 54.6 12.3 12.9 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.6 15.7 0.0 48.5 48.0 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.0 13.8 0.2 57.9 55.9 12.4 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.0 17.4 -0.3 41.9 42.5 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.6 8.3 13.5 -0.1 47.3 47.1 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.8 15.8 -0.1 47.3 47.1 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.7 14.2 0.0 48.7 48.3 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.1 15.2 -0.3 40.3 41.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.5 14.4 -0.2 45.3 45.7 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.5 13.8 -0.3 41.0 42.7 13.3 13.7 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.3 15.5 -0.1 46.4 46.3 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.1 17.3 0.1 53.2 51.8 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.2 14.7 -0.1 46.5 46.7 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.5 17.2 -0.1 45.9 45.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.2 13.4 0.0 51.3 50.3 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 14.6 15.0 17.5 -0.2 44.2 44.2 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.3 11.4 0.1 53.4 52.1 8.8 9.2 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.5 17.0 -0.1 46.1 45.9 14.1 14.6 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.7 14.4 17.2 -0.1 46.6 46.2 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 14.1 14.4 17.5 -0.2 43.0 43.4 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.0 15.5 0.0 48.4 47.9 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.8 16.6 -0.1 46.1 46.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.2 13.7 0.2 57.0 55.5 13.6 14.0 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.1 17.1 -0.1 47.2 47.0 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.9 16.1 0.2 57.6 55.3 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.5 12.8 0.0 49.6 49.0 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.1 17.7 -0.3 42.8 43.2 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------