***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 94 6 100 29.2 29.3 29.5 0.3 53.5 53.2 27.8 29.1 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 29.2 29.0 29.5 0.1 50.8 50.7 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 28.9 29.2 30.0 0.5 55.5 55.0 27.5 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 22.1 22.9 27.2 1.0 63.7 62.6 20.6 21.9 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 29.6 29.9 28.2 0.5 55.8 55.4 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 28.3 29.0 26.1 0.9 62.5 61.5 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 29.0 28.6 29.2 -0.1 48.5 48.5 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 17.6 18.0 26.3 0.7 58.8 58.0 16.4 17.5 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 29.0 29.6 29.4 0.9 60.4 59.6 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 28.9 29.6 27.5 1.2 63.6 62.5 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 29.1 29.2 28.6 0.2 52.8 52.6 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 94 6 100 28.3 28.5 27.6 0.4 55.1 54.7 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 29.5 29.3 28.1 0.0 49.4 49.4 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 28.8 29.4 28.8 0.9 61.3 60.4 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 29.9 30.1 30.0 0.5 55.9 55.6 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 30.2 30.2 28.1 0.2 52.4 52.2 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 28.5 28.3 29.0 0.1 51.5 51.4 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 27.9 28.5 26.4 1.1 62.7 61.8 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 28.7 28.6 29.7 0.2 52.6 52.3 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 24.0 24.4 24.2 0.8 60.0 59.2 22.6 23.8 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 29.1 29.4 29.7 0.6 56.8 56.4 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 29.0 29.3 29.3 0.5 56.9 56.3 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 28.7 28.7 29.8 0.2 52.5 52.4 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 28.5 29.1 28.8 1.0 61.5 60.6 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 29.4 29.3 28.3 0.2 52.0 51.9 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 29.3 29.6 27.4 0.5 56.3 55.8 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 28.9 28.9 28.8 0.2 52.0 51.9 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 29.8 30.5 28.6 1.0 63.0 62.0 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 23.3 24.0 25.7 1.1 62.9 62.0 21.9 23.1 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 29.0 28.8 29.5 0.0 50.0 50.0 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------