***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 30.2 30.1 29.0 0.3 54.5 53.2 28.5 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.3 28.7 -0.1 48.9 48.6 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.8 29.4 0.4 55.3 53.6 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 24.0 24.4 27.8 1.6 71.6 66.1 21.3 22.6 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 30.7 31.1 28.2 0.9 61.6 58.5 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.5 26.8 1.8 73.8 67.7 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.8 28.4 -0.2 46.6 47.0 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.2 18.9 26.8 1.2 65.6 61.4 16.6 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.4 28.8 1.0 62.9 59.5 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.7 30.4 27.4 1.3 66.6 62.2 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 30.2 30.4 28.4 0.7 58.9 56.6 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 29.5 30.0 28.2 1.1 63.6 59.9 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 30.6 30.9 28.1 0.8 60.6 57.4 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.4 27.4 0.3 53.9 52.1 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 31.5 31.7 30.2 1.5 70.2 65.8 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 31.3 31.8 28.3 1.0 62.6 59.1 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.6 28.2 -0.1 48.7 48.3 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.7 29.2 26.3 1.1 64.5 60.0 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.1 28.9 0.1 50.8 49.9 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.6 24.5 1.3 67.6 61.9 22.9 24.3 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 29.9 30.0 29.1 0.6 58.2 55.9 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.3 28.2 0.0 50.6 49.5 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 29.7 29.3 29.0 0.1 51.6 50.5 28.0 29.1 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.5 27.9 0.7 59.1 55.9 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 30.2 30.3 28.0 0.6 58.0 55.8 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 31.1 31.3 28.5 1.6 70.0 64.5 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.7 28.3 0.4 55.2 53.7 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 31.6 31.9 29.0 1.7 72.8 67.3 29.0 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.8 25.5 1.1 64.7 59.8 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.2 28.8 -0.1 48.9 48.7 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------