***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 27.8 29.1 28.0 -0.3 45.8 45.9 28.1 29.5 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 27.3 28.5 27.9 -0.4 45.0 45.3 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 27.4 28.9 28.5 -0.1 48.6 47.9 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.0 23.2 27.1 0.6 58.8 55.2 21.0 22.5 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 30.6 30.2 27.1 0.2 52.6 50.9 28.5 29.9 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 29.1 29.2 25.2 0.6 59.0 54.9 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 26.9 28.0 27.7 -0.5 43.0 44.0 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.3 18.2 25.9 0.4 55.5 53.0 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.6 27.3 0.3 54.8 52.4 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.7 26.4 0.6 58.0 54.7 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 30.1 29.7 27.1 0.1 51.6 50.3 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 29.4 29.0 27.2 0.2 52.4 50.9 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 28.2 30.0 26.2 0.1 51.4 50.1 28.4 29.9 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.6 26.2 -0.2 47.6 47.5 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 30.3 30.5 28.3 0.7 59.5 55.8 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 31.2 30.9 26.9 0.3 53.9 51.9 29.1 30.6 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 26.6 27.9 27.6 -0.2 46.6 46.6 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.5 28.5 25.5 0.5 57.3 54.1 26.6 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 26.9 28.2 28.1 -0.3 45.8 45.9 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.7 24.8 23.3 0.5 57.6 54.4 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.3 27.8 0.0 50.2 49.1 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.6 27.6 -0.1 48.7 48.0 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 27.1 28.3 28.1 -0.4 45.1 45.5 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.7 26.6 0.2 52.1 50.5 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.3 26.6 0.0 50.3 48.9 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 30.0 30.1 27.4 0.6 58.4 54.9 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 27.2 28.7 27.2 -0.2 47.6 47.1 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.5 30.8 27.7 0.7 60.5 56.5 28.5 30.0 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.1 24.5 0.4 56.1 53.2 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 27.0 28.3 27.9 -0.4 44.1 44.7 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------