***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.8 28.6 0.1 52.1 51.3 27.7 28.7 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.7 28.3 28.5 0.0 49.1 48.6 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.6 29.1 0.3 54.9 53.5 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 22.8 22.9 27.2 1.1 69.3 65.4 20.7 21.7 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 29.5 29.7 27.5 0.5 59.1 57.2 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 28.9 29.0 25.7 1.0 69.9 66.1 26.8 27.8 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.4 27.9 28.2 -0.2 46.0 46.2 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 17.4 17.8 26.1 0.7 62.8 60.5 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 28.7 29.1 28.1 0.7 62.0 59.8 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 28.6 29.2 26.8 1.0 66.1 63.2 27.4 28.3 29.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 29.1 29.1 27.7 0.4 56.3 55.0 27.8 28.8 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 28.4 28.6 27.4 0.6 59.5 57.8 27.1 28.1 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.5 27.1 0.3 56.1 54.8 28.1 29.2 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 28.5 28.5 27.1 0.3 55.0 53.4 27.2 28.2 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 30.3 30.2 29.1 0.9 66.6 63.5 28.3 29.3 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 30.2 30.4 27.5 0.5 59.5 57.5 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.0 27.6 28.0 0.0 49.8 49.1 26.8 27.7 28.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 27.6 28.1 25.8 0.8 64.6 61.8 26.4 27.3 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.1 28.7 0.1 51.0 50.0 27.1 28.0 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 23.7 24.3 23.7 0.8 64.8 61.8 22.5 23.4 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 28.8 28.9 28.5 0.4 56.7 55.1 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.5 28.4 28.2 0.2 53.5 51.9 27.3 28.2 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 28.4 28.2 28.8 0.0 50.7 49.7 27.3 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 28.1 28.4 27.4 0.6 59.8 57.5 27.0 27.9 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.1 29.0 27.3 0.3 55.3 53.8 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.8 27.5 0.9 65.9 63.0 27.8 28.8 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.4 27.8 0.2 52.7 51.8 27.4 28.3 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.5 28.1 1.2 70.6 66.6 28.3 29.3 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 23.1 23.6 24.9 0.8 64.0 61.0 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.2 28.5 -0.1 48.4 48.1 27.3 28.2 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------