***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.7 9.2 7.7 63.4 52.7 40.5 4.4 8.4 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.8 7.0 55.7 49.5 39.4 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.4 6.3 6.1 49.0 45.7 34.9 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 4.2 6.4 3.8 30.8 35.5 27.4 5.7 11.4 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.5 5.3 4.4 37.1 41.1 32.0 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 3.2 3.9 3.0 23.0 28.0 22.4 5.0 10.0 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.3 7.7 61.0 51.8 40.3 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 5.7 6.9 5.2 33.6 34.9 29.9 6.4 11.9 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.7 8.0 5.7 48.0 45.8 37.1 4.8 9.3 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 5.3 7.3 6.4 42.0 40.9 34.4 5.2 10.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 4.8 7.3 4.3 35.1 39.8 30.0 5.7 10.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 3.7 4.9 3.5 30.7 35.2 28.3 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 2.3 3.4 3.2 28.9 35.3 25.2 3.0 7.3 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.4 7.4 8.6 52.0 46.6 36.2 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 2.8 3.1 1.8 16.7 26.8 18.6 4.4 9.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 3.1 4.9 3.6 32.4 36.6 27.2 4.2 7.9 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.4 9.2 77.1 58.4 45.5 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.1 6.6 7.3 45.5 40.6 35.5 5.0 9.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.4 7.1 6.4 49.6 46.0 37.3 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 3.4 3.9 5.9 33.5 30.0 25.9 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 4.3 8.1 5.7 50.1 46.8 36.0 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.4 8.7 70.6 55.3 45.1 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.5 5.3 6.0 45.5 42.5 34.0 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.6 8.5 6.7 46.4 43.2 34.5 5.3 11.1 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.9 7.1 6.4 50.8 48.3 37.0 3.8 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 2.6 2.4 1.2 13.2 21.1 15.0 4.7 8.9 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.1 8.9 7.7 60.5 51.8 40.7 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 2.6 3.4 3.1 25.6 32.1 24.3 3.6 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 6.9 8.7 6.5 40.2 35.3 31.0 7.9 13.6 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.7 4.8 6.9 55.5 49.2 39.1 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------