***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.9 13.1 7.5 82.7 60.5 43.8 4.7 9.2 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.7 15.2 7.8 95.8 64.9 44.6 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.1 15.0 6.8 79.2 59.8 44.2 4.5 10.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.0 14.6 6.1 77.1 59.6 37.7 4.9 10.4 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 5.4 16.6 6.4 84.4 61.7 41.1 5.3 11.1 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 4.0 13.0 7.7 82.7 61.2 39.5 4.5 8.9 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.4 12.0 8.6 111.4 68.9 46.5 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 8.6 17.7 6.0 61.0 51.9 35.8 8.9 16.5 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 6.5 16.9 7.0 83.9 61.3 41.5 6.5 12.1 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 6.8 16.0 7.4 73.3 56.8 39.8 6.6 12.7 21.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 5.7 13.8 5.6 75.8 58.7 38.7 5.7 10.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.6 8.5 4.3 56.8 51.1 33.3 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.0 11.6 5.4 67.3 56.4 35.9 4.4 9.2 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.7 15.8 8.0 71.1 56.3 43.8 5.9 12.2 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.9 5.9 5.3 75.7 59.6 36.5 1.8 4.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 4.3 12.8 5.5 74.5 58.8 39.2 4.2 9.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 5.5 18.2 9.8 127.5 72.8 45.6 5.7 9.8 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.6 9.0 76.8 57.7 42.7 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.5 12.1 7.0 82.5 60.8 43.4 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.9 16.8 9.3 77.8 57.1 43.5 8.8 14.1 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.4 15.0 6.9 87.8 62.5 43.3 4.9 9.6 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 5.3 18.3 10.0 120.0 70.9 45.7 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.0 11.8 6.0 68.2 55.4 41.1 4.7 9.8 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.5 16.9 7.6 73.8 57.0 42.5 6.3 13.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.7 14.7 7.7 84.4 61.8 42.9 3.9 9.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.8 8.4 4.0 57.7 52.3 34.2 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.7 15.4 8.3 89.6 63.0 44.9 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.3 8.7 5.6 72.0 58.2 37.9 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.0 9.6 79.0 57.8 44.1 9.1 16.6 27.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 4.5 13.1 7.9 92.4 64.0 44.7 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------