***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 45.1 41.9 36.6 87.3 55.3 49.6 23.7 37.1 53.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 45.4 45.2 36.3 90.2 56.8 51.1 27.2 39.5 53.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 52.3 46.2 34.5 81.5 52.0 47.1 30.9 44.5 60.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 34.7 44.3 27.0 67.1 44.8 40.3 34.8 48.9 64.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 38.3 32.4 29.5 76.1 50.5 45.5 20.2 31.7 46.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 27.6 37.2 31.1 69.6 43.8 38.8 29.9 41.5 55.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 41.0 41.6 37.4 94.8 58.3 51.4 23.6 35.1 48.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 44.2 53.1 30.0 63.7 40.2 35.4 46.3 62.7 81.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 49.6 41.9 31.4 75.6 49.6 44.6 28.4 42.2 58.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 59.3 49.5 35.0 71.0 45.0 40.1 41.5 53.0 65.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 43.9 35.9 27.5 72.5 47.6 42.8 26.5 37.6 50.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 23.2 28.7 22.7 61.3 41.5 36.7 24.1 33.6 44.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 20.7 30.1 24.5 65.0 44.3 38.9 22.3 34.5 49.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 63.0 53.7 43.0 78.5 48.0 43.8 40.2 55.8 73.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 16.4 26.3 23.3 67.9 47.9 41.5 16.6 28.2 43.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 25.2 32.8 24.6 66.1 44.8 39.9 26.1 36.1 47.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 45.0 48.1 40.5 101.5 61.7 53.9 29.6 39.8 51.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 51.9 41.5 41.5 74.1 44.4 40.3 33.9 45.5 58.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 44.5 41.4 35.1 84.8 53.8 48.9 25.0 38.0 53.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 36.5 42.8 40.0 70.6 39.8 35.7 38.0 50.4 64.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 50.3 45.6 32.5 80.6 52.4 47.0 30.5 43.5 58.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 50.1 50.6 41.1 95.2 58.3 52.5 35.0 45.1 56.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 44.5 38.4 34.2 79.3 50.0 45.8 25.4 38.4 53.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 64.2 54.2 38.6 76.7 47.5 43.0 41.9 56.6 72.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 46.4 42.9 36.4 84.6 54.0 48.5 28.2 39.9 53.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 21.3 26.1 19.0 57.1 40.1 35.3 21.9 32.5 45.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 51.8 50.1 39.9 89.8 56.3 50.2 31.5 44.6 60.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 19.4 26.8 24.2 63.5 44.0 39.1 20.1 31.0 44.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 46.9 56.6 43.4 74.7 43.2 39.2 48.0 62.8 79.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 39.6 38.7 36.3 88.8 55.8 50.3 25.3 35.1 46.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------