***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 19.7 21.2 3.3 97.2 94.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 17.2 19.2 20.8 3.0 95.7 92.8 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 19.4 21.7 21.2 3.3 97.9 95.4 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 14.9 18.4 19.7 3.6 99.3 97.2 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 15.8 18.5 19.4 3.2 99.0 96.5 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 14.6 17.9 17.9 3.8 99.9 99.0 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 17.3 19.1 20.9 3.0 95.5 92.6 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 10.5 13.3 17.3 3.3 99.1 96.7 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 16.9 19.5 19.8 3.2 99.0 96.9 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 16.8 19.3 18.1 3.2 99.1 96.7 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 16.4 18.7 18.7 2.9 98.7 95.9 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 14.6 16.9 18.2 3.3 99.2 97.1 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 15.9 18.8 17.8 3.0 99.5 97.8 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 17.4 19.8 20.0 3.5 99.1 97.1 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 18.0 20.2 20.7 3.1 98.6 95.9 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 17.3 20.0 18.6 3.1 99.4 97.4 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 17.6 19.4 20.5 3.2 96.5 93.8 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 15.3 18.1 17.2 3.2 98.9 96.3 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 17.1 19.1 21.1 3.4 97.2 94.8 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 11.1 13.4 15.0 3.0 98.6 95.4 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 16.7 18.8 20.7 3.1 97.8 94.9 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 16.4 18.2 20.9 3.4 97.2 94.8 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 16.5 19.5 21.6 4.0 99.3 97.9 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 17.1 19.7 19.6 3.5 99.3 97.4 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 17.2 19.4 20.0 3.0 96.8 93.3 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 15.9 18.7 17.8 3.4 99.5 97.9 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 17.8 20.5 20.4 3.1 96.7 93.4 14.7 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 15.8 18.6 20.1 3.4 99.3 97.1 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 14.4 16.8 16.3 3.0 98.6 95.6 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 17.5 19.5 21.1 3.1 96.0 93.2 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------