***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 17.3 19.3 1.7 84.3 75.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 16.4 17.1 19.3 1.7 81.9 73.3 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 19.1 20.1 19.4 2.0 88.4 78.3 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 15.2 16.4 17.6 1.7 86.6 77.7 12.8 13.9 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 15.0 16.1 17.5 1.9 88.4 79.1 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 13.9 14.9 16.0 2.1 91.9 82.8 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 16.7 17.2 19.2 1.5 79.8 71.8 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 10.1 11.3 15.7 1.9 89.4 80.6 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 16.3 17.5 17.9 2.1 90.8 80.8 14.5 15.3 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 16.1 17.1 16.3 1.9 89.9 81.0 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 15.6 16.7 17.2 2.1 91.4 82.5 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 13.7 14.9 16.8 2.1 92.4 83.1 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 14.8 16.1 16.3 2.1 93.1 83.3 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 16.7 18.0 18.0 2.2 93.3 83.6 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 17.3 18.6 18.7 2.2 91.3 82.0 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 16.7 18.0 17.0 2.2 92.7 83.4 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 17.0 17.5 18.7 1.5 80.4 72.2 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 14.4 15.6 15.6 2.0 91.0 81.8 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 16.4 17.2 19.5 2.0 86.8 77.3 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 10.2 11.0 13.8 1.7 86.9 77.3 8.9 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 15.8 16.7 18.7 1.9 87.4 77.6 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 15.8 16.5 19.0 1.8 85.3 76.3 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 15.8 16.9 19.6 2.4 92.9 82.8 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 16.4 17.8 17.7 2.2 93.0 83.2 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 16.3 17.1 18.0 1.8 86.7 77.1 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 15.1 16.1 16.4 2.1 92.9 82.1 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 17.0 18.0 18.6 1.8 85.3 75.9 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 14.8 15.9 18.1 1.9 89.0 80.1 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 14.3 15.5 14.8 1.9 90.1 80.9 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 16.8 17.5 19.4 1.7 82.9 74.1 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------