***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 9999.0 16.6 18.1 1.0 69.0 64.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 16.0 16.0 18.1 0.9 68.5 63.8 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 18.4 18.8 18.1 1.2 72.8 67.1 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 13.4 14.1 16.2 0.8 66.6 62.0 12.0 13.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 13.5 14.2 16.0 0.9 69.6 64.3 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 13.2 13.6 14.4 1.1 75.5 67.7 11.8 12.5 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.6 16.1 18.0 0.9 67.0 62.9 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.3 9.6 14.4 1.2 74.0 68.5 7.3 8.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 15.5 15.8 16.4 1.1 72.2 66.4 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 15.3 15.6 14.9 1.1 73.4 67.8 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 14.7 15.1 15.8 1.2 75.5 69.0 13.2 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 13.0 13.4 15.3 1.2 76.1 69.6 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 13.5 14.4 14.6 1.1 74.2 66.7 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.5 16.5 1.3 76.5 69.7 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 16.5 16.8 17.2 1.0 71.4 65.6 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 15.9 16.3 15.4 1.2 74.9 67.7 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.4 17.5 0.8 66.6 62.0 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.7 14.0 14.2 1.2 74.6 68.3 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.2 18.2 1.1 72.3 66.7 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 9.5 9.6 12.5 1.0 70.7 65.2 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 14.6 15.3 17.3 1.0 69.3 64.3 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.3 15.4 17.7 1.0 71.2 65.3 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.8 18.2 1.4 77.2 70.6 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 15.8 16.1 16.2 1.3 76.7 69.9 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.6 16.6 0.9 68.4 63.5 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 14.4 14.7 14.7 1.0 71.7 64.9 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.5 16.4 17.3 0.9 68.2 63.6 14.0 15.1 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 13.5 14.1 16.6 0.9 68.7 63.5 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 13.8 14.1 13.6 1.1 74.8 68.0 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 16.5 16.6 18.3 1.0 69.5 64.7 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------