***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 14.7 17.1 0.6 62.2 57.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.3 17.2 0.7 65.5 60.3 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.5 17.1 0.7 66.4 60.7 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.7 15.3 0.5 61.6 56.8 9.8 10.9 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.7 13.2 15.0 0.6 64.2 58.9 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.4 12.6 13.6 0.9 72.4 64.8 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.4 17.2 0.6 63.7 58.9 12.7 13.7 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.8 13.3 0.7 66.7 61.3 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.3 15.3 0.6 65.5 60.0 12.6 13.4 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.6 14.1 13.8 0.6 65.9 60.8 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 14.0 14.2 14.8 0.9 71.5 64.1 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 12.3 12.5 14.3 0.8 70.0 63.4 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.5 13.7 0.8 69.5 63.2 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 15.0 15.2 15.4 0.9 72.2 65.8 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.6 16.4 0.8 67.5 61.0 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 14.9 15.1 14.5 0.9 71.4 64.2 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.7 16.7 0.7 64.6 59.6 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.7 13.0 0.7 67.2 62.0 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 14.5 14.6 17.2 0.9 69.0 62.7 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.7 11.6 0.6 63.6 59.4 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.8 16.2 0.5 61.9 57.1 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 13.3 14.0 16.8 0.9 69.7 63.0 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.3 17.1 1.1 73.7 66.2 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 14.5 14.6 15.1 0.8 70.2 64.1 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.1 15.7 0.6 62.6 56.6 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.2 13.8 0.6 64.1 59.9 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.3 16.4 0.6 62.7 57.2 12.4 13.5 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.8 13.2 15.8 0.6 64.2 59.0 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 11.9 12.0 12.5 0.7 69.1 63.3 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.6 17.3 0.7 65.3 60.1 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------