***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 16.7 18.9 1.6 92.5 85.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 15.7 16.6 18.8 1.6 90.8 84.4 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 18.1 19.2 18.9 1.8 94.9 88.3 16.7 17.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 13.9 15.1 17.2 1.7 94.1 86.9 12.2 12.8 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 14.3 15.3 17.0 1.6 94.5 87.7 13.1 13.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 13.3 14.5 15.5 2.0 98.1 92.1 12.3 12.7 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 15.9 16.6 18.8 1.5 89.3 83.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 9.2 10.5 15.2 1.7 96.4 90.2 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 15.6 16.7 17.4 1.8 95.7 89.1 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 15.4 16.5 15.8 1.7 96.2 90.1 14.2 14.6 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 15.1 16.2 16.6 1.8 96.3 90.2 13.8 14.2 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 13.2 14.4 16.1 1.9 97.2 91.3 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 14.4 15.5 15.6 1.7 97.1 90.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 16.0 17.4 17.5 2.0 98.0 92.8 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 16.8 18.0 18.3 1.8 94.8 87.2 15.3 15.8 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 16.0 17.3 16.4 1.8 97.0 90.9 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 16.2 16.9 18.4 1.5 91.2 84.9 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 13.8 15.1 15.0 1.7 96.6 90.8 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 15.7 16.6 19.0 1.8 94.1 88.0 14.6 15.0 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 9.7 10.6 13.2 1.6 95.0 88.3 8.7 9.1 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 15.2 16.0 18.2 1.6 93.1 86.2 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 15.1 15.9 18.6 1.8 94.3 88.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 15.1 16.3 19.1 2.2 97.9 92.7 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 15.7 17.1 17.2 2.0 97.8 92.3 14.5 14.9 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 15.5 16.2 17.6 1.6 92.7 85.2 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 14.6 15.6 15.7 1.8 96.9 90.8 13.4 13.9 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 15.9 16.8 18.2 1.6 92.4 85.0 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 14.4 15.4 17.7 1.7 94.5 87.3 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 13.3 14.6 14.3 1.7 96.4 90.3 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 16.0 16.8 19.0 1.6 91.3 84.8 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------