***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 30.5 29.2 1.5 70.9 64.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 30.2 30.4 29.4 1.8 74.5 66.9 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 30.4 30.5 29.4 1.7 73.4 66.0 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 23.8 23.5 27.7 1.1 66.0 60.8 20.9 22.3 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 31.3 31.1 27.6 1.3 67.5 61.9 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 30.0 30.3 25.8 1.7 73.8 65.3 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 29.7 29.9 29.1 1.7 73.1 65.8 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 19.1 19.2 26.0 1.5 70.3 63.7 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 30.5 30.5 27.8 1.4 69.3 63.2 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 30.5 30.5 26.6 1.5 70.4 63.9 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 31.0 31.1 27.4 1.6 71.4 64.5 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 30.2 30.4 27.2 1.6 71.4 64.3 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 31.3 31.5 26.8 1.6 71.6 64.1 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 30.1 30.6 27.8 2.0 76.8 67.7 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 31.1 31.2 28.5 1.4 69.7 63.4 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 32.1 32.1 27.3 1.6 71.1 64.0 28.9 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 29.4 29.8 29.0 1.9 75.8 67.6 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 29.4 29.5 25.8 1.5 71.2 64.0 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 29.9 30.2 29.6 2.0 76.3 68.3 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 25.5 25.4 23.5 1.3 68.2 62.0 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 30.6 30.4 28.6 1.3 68.2 62.4 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 30.0 30.4 29.2 2.0 77.5 68.8 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 30.0 30.5 29.6 2.2 78.4 69.6 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 30.0 30.3 27.6 1.8 74.6 66.3 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 30.6 30.6 27.8 1.4 69.3 62.9 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.8 30.9 26.8 1.4 70.0 62.8 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 30.1 30.1 28.3 1.5 71.0 63.9 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 31.3 31.1 28.0 1.2 67.0 61.5 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 25.0 25.0 24.7 1.5 70.5 63.2 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 30.0 30.2 29.5 1.8 73.8 66.4 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------