***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 31.3 30.2 2.6 93.9 86.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 29.6 31.3 30.3 2.8 94.6 87.4 27.4 28.3 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 29.7 31.7 30.5 2.9 96.0 88.4 27.4 28.3 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 23.1 25.0 28.9 2.7 94.0 86.2 20.6 21.6 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 30.6 32.7 29.0 2.8 95.2 87.6 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 29.3 31.9 27.2 3.3 97.4 89.4 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 29.3 30.7 30.0 2.6 93.1 85.9 27.1 28.0 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 18.5 21.0 27.6 3.3 97.5 90.3 16.1 17.0 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 29.8 32.0 29.4 3.0 96.4 89.0 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 29.7 32.4 28.2 3.2 97.6 90.4 27.3 28.2 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 30.2 32.8 28.9 3.2 97.0 89.7 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 29.5 32.2 28.8 3.3 97.3 90.3 27.0 28.0 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 30.7 33.3 28.5 3.4 96.9 89.7 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 29.6 32.9 29.3 3.5 98.9 92.2 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 30.6 32.5 29.8 2.8 94.7 86.6 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 31.3 33.9 28.9 3.2 96.7 89.3 28.7 29.7 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 28.9 30.7 30.0 2.9 95.5 88.7 26.7 27.6 28.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 28.7 31.5 27.4 3.4 98.3 91.3 26.4 27.2 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 29.4 31.7 30.7 3.2 96.4 89.4 27.0 28.0 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 24.9 27.7 25.3 3.2 97.7 90.4 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 29.9 31.8 29.9 2.7 94.6 87.1 27.5 28.4 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 29.4 31.8 30.2 3.2 97.2 90.6 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 29.3 32.1 30.9 3.6 98.5 91.8 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 29.2 32.2 29.1 3.4 98.6 91.6 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 30.1 32.0 28.9 2.6 94.3 86.4 27.7 28.6 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 30.3 32.7 28.3 3.1 96.1 88.9 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 29.6 31.2 29.4 2.6 94.1 86.3 27.3 28.2 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 30.7 32.5 29.4 2.7 94.0 86.1 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 24.3 27.5 26.4 3.4 98.4 91.4 21.7 22.7 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 29.5 31.2 30.4 2.8 94.1 86.8 27.3 28.1 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------