***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9999.0 23.6 23.6 61.6 35.0 29.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 22.6 28.9 23.9 61.5 34.9 30.1 27.6 39.7 54.2 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 24.3 32.3 23.9 63.4 34.0 29.8 31.3 45.1 61.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 30.5 42.4 27.7 70.4 42.1 32.7 35.6 48.3 63.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 15.9 24.5 27.2 69.5 40.9 33.2 19.6 31.1 45.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 23.2 31.4 35.1 71.0 40.1 33.8 26.6 38.4 52.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 18.0 21.6 23.3 58.2 31.6 28.6 22.4 33.5 46.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 43.0 51.6 28.4 64.8 37.1 33.0 48.0 63.8 81.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 22.5 32.7 27.7 68.4 38.8 32.4 28.4 41.5 57.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 37.0 43.3 30.4 65.6 35.4 32.0 41.6 53.2 65.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 24.2 31.7 23.7 66.0 40.3 33.5 27.4 38.0 50.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 22.5 29.8 22.4 67.3 41.8 34.6 25.4 34.3 44.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 21.3 28.4 27.3 70.2 41.0 34.8 23.2 34.8 48.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 34.9 39.3 29.4 62.7 30.4 29.9 41.6 56.2 73.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 14.4 23.9 25.0 69.9 44.1 31.2 17.1 28.2 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 24.1 30.4 25.5 67.6 40.4 33.8 26.4 36.0 46.8 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 24.8 27.6 22.3 56.5 30.2 28.0 29.1 39.4 50.9 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 29.9 35.6 35.7 67.4 34.8 32.9 34.5 46.2 59.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 19.9 26.9 23.7 62.0 35.6 30.4 25.0 37.7 53.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 34.2 41.5 39.5 70.0 37.4 34.6 38.4 50.9 64.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 24.3 34.9 24.9 67.4 38.8 31.7 30.5 43.5 58.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 30.2 34.1 22.7 55.7 30.7 27.9 35.4 46.0 57.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 20.9 26.8 23.6 61.3 33.3 29.6 26.6 39.2 54.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 36.0 43.6 29.9 65.7 33.6 31.6 42.9 57.2 73.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 23.1 32.0 29.1 69.2 39.0 32.3 28.2 39.9 53.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 17.6 27.4 23.4 74.6 45.5 36.9 20.1 30.5 43.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 25.8 33.4 27.8 64.2 35.9 31.1 31.2 44.2 59.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 17.0 25.5 26.2 68.6 42.5 32.3 20.0 30.4 43.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 41.7 48.9 37.2 68.1 34.9 33.2 47.2 62.7 79.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 20.6 26.3 23.8 61.2 34.6 29.7 25.3 35.2 46.2 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------