***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.7 13.9 13.8 10.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 91 9 0 100 1.9 1.0 1.4 12.6 12.6 10.5 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 93 7 0 100 1.3 0.4 1.3 11.2 10.0 7.7 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 2.5 2.4 2.8 23.1 20.7 13.3 4.8 9.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 1.5 1.3 2.0 18.5 18.1 11.9 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 2.4 3.6 4.7 34.0 30.2 17.2 4.2 8.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 1.3 0.5 1.4 11.7 10.8 8.9 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 3.8 2.5 2.0 16.7 14.8 11.2 6.8 12.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 95 5 0 100 2.0 1.4 1.8 15.6 14.4 10.0 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 3.0 1.7 1.9 15.0 12.4 9.4 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 3.2 2.9 1.9 19.5 19.8 13.6 5.5 9.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 2.3 1.9 1.7 18.6 19.2 13.4 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 1.1 1.0 2.6 22.6 19.3 12.2 2.7 6.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 2.1 0.8 1.2 9.9 7.9 6.7 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 1.9 2.4 3.4 29.7 26.1 14.2 3.6 7.9 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 2.0 1.9 2.5 22.8 20.0 12.6 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 1.7 0.8 1.2 10.1 10.7 9.0 4.0 8.1 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 2.5 1.1 1.9 13.5 8.3 7.1 5.3 9.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 1.5 0.5 1.4 12.2 12.0 10.1 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 91 9 0 100 2.2 1.1 2.5 17.8 12.4 10.4 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 2.0 1.7 1.6 14.9 15.4 10.4 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 2.4 1.1 1.2 9.6 10.5 8.9 4.8 8.8 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 1.6 0.5 1.2 10.4 8.7 7.6 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 2.2 0.8 1.4 11.8 8.1 6.7 5.7 11.2 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 92 8 0 100 1.8 1.2 2.3 18.3 14.5 10.7 3.8 7.6 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 2.1 2.2 2.9 29.7 24.9 16.7 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 1.9 1.2 2.3 16.6 14.3 10.9 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 1.5 1.7 3.1 26.3 25.2 14.2 2.9 6.7 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 3.9 1.8 2.0 14.0 8.4 7.6 7.4 12.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 1.5 0.7 1.4 11.9 11.4 9.3 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------