***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 12.4 10.7 110.6 68.3 43.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.3 9.0 10.0 96.9 64.1 42.3 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.9 12.1 10.5 104.1 66.2 41.4 3.1 6.7 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 1.9 9.3 11.2 101.1 66.9 40.4 1.9 4.5 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 1.5 5.5 10.9 94.8 64.5 39.5 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.8 12.8 84.6 61.3 42.7 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.0 7.0 9.6 92.2 62.8 42.4 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 3.8 9.7 9.9 73.5 55.8 37.8 4.0 8.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 1.9 7.2 11.4 95.7 63.9 39.6 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.1 9.4 11.6 82.5 59.0 39.3 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 1.6 4.8 8.8 79.1 59.7 38.3 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 1.8 4.9 7.6 76.3 57.9 36.6 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 1.7 5.6 9.9 86.0 62.0 40.7 1.4 3.5 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 4.5 12.1 12.5 90.2 60.4 40.7 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.6 8.3 10.2 102.7 67.6 41.0 1.6 4.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 1.5 5.6 9.4 82.4 61.6 39.8 1.4 3.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.0 5.4 9.1 87.4 61.2 42.0 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 2.7 7.4 14.0 88.7 60.6 41.2 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 2.3 8.4 10.0 97.4 63.9 41.3 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.2 9.4 14.4 86.2 59.4 41.5 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 2.3 11.0 10.8 105.4 66.8 40.3 2.4 5.6 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.2 6.0 9.5 86.6 60.0 41.3 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 2.5 8.4 10.0 93.7 62.4 40.2 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.6 11.4 12.3 93.0 62.0 40.9 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.9 9.7 13.4 115.7 70.1 43.0 1.7 4.3 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 1.6 4.7 7.5 87.5 61.7 39.7 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.9 13.8 12.8 113.2 69.0 43.8 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.5 5.9 10.1 91.1 64.5 40.1 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 3.5 10.3 14.5 90.2 60.8 41.5 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.6 10.9 10.2 100.4 65.1 42.1 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------