***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9999.0 10.2 7.0 74.4 57.9 31.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.0 8.0 7.9 73.7 57.3 33.7 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.7 8.8 7.9 83.4 60.4 34.3 3.0 6.0 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 2.2 10.4 8.0 89.2 63.5 35.4 2.7 6.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 1.7 6.7 8.8 93.8 64.4 35.9 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.6 8.8 10.2 90.5 63.1 38.7 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.7 8.9 7.7 71.7 56.3 33.0 2.8 6.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 4.1 16.4 10.4 99.0 65.6 40.0 4.2 9.2 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 2.0 9.6 9.2 93.5 64.0 35.4 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 2.7 9.4 10.7 96.2 64.7 38.8 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 2.0 8.8 8.0 98.7 65.6 36.9 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 1.9 7.5 8.3 105.3 67.3 37.6 2.1 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.1 7.8 9.2 102.3 66.7 38.9 2.4 4.5 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.0 13.1 10.2 83.5 60.5 37.7 4.0 8.8 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 1.3 5.9 6.4 81.0 62.1 33.0 1.6 3.5 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 1.8 8.2 8.4 100.9 66.6 38.2 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 3.9 9.6 7.2 68.2 54.8 34.2 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.3 13.2 12.6 95.5 64.5 41.0 3.3 7.3 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.3 10.0 8.0 77.4 58.6 34.3 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.4 13.3 14.1 98.8 65.6 44.2 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 1.9 9.2 8.0 91.7 63.6 34.2 2.2 5.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.6 11.0 7.0 64.2 53.6 34.5 5.1 9.7 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.8 9.5 8.4 83.8 60.7 35.2 3.2 6.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.0 9.5 10.4 90.0 62.6 38.4 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 1.8 7.4 8.2 83.5 61.6 35.6 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.3 8.9 7.8 106.2 67.6 37.1 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 2.8 9.7 7.9 76.3 59.0 34.1 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 1.8 7.8 7.5 89.6 64.3 35.9 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 3.7 14.1 13.0 94.6 64.3 42.3 3.7 8.2 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.1 6.3 7.8 74.4 57.6 33.1 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------