***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 9999.0 11.5 4.2 58.9 52.6 28.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 4.4 11.1 4.6 69.6 55.1 32.4 5.0 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 4.0 11.2 4.2 63.5 53.1 31.1 4.6 10.1 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 3.8 13.7 5.7 78.2 59.3 31.1 4.7 9.8 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 3.9 14.1 5.6 75.9 58.8 32.9 5.0 10.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.6 11.3 7.5 80.4 61.1 38.3 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.0 7.3 4.5 66.3 54.3 33.1 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 8.3 20.3 6.1 76.4 57.9 35.8 9.3 16.1 25.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 4.5 13.7 5.3 71.7 57.4 33.6 4.9 10.5 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 5.9 16.1 6.2 73.4 57.0 34.9 6.6 12.6 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 3.5 12.2 4.9 73.3 58.2 32.7 4.6 9.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 3.8 11.6 4.8 78.5 59.6 33.8 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.3 13.0 5.7 80.6 60.2 35.4 4.8 9.3 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 6.2 13.2 5.5 61.6 49.7 33.1 7.0 13.4 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 1.5 6.2 5.1 77.1 59.6 29.0 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.6 12.0 5.2 74.6 58.5 33.6 4.1 8.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 4.1 9.5 4.8 69.8 53.9 31.4 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 5.0 11.8 7.2 72.6 55.2 35.9 5.5 10.1 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 3.5 8.7 4.3 67.1 53.9 31.6 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.7 15.4 8.4 76.0 56.6 38.1 6.9 12.6 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 3.2 9.8 4.4 64.7 54.0 30.8 3.8 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 5.0 12.0 5.0 74.4 55.8 32.9 5.8 10.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 3.9 9.4 4.1 60.8 50.1 30.1 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 6.1 15.5 5.7 67.7 53.6 34.3 7.0 13.5 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 3.1 10.7 5.2 64.2 54.5 30.0 3.9 9.0 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 2.8 11.4 5.1 91.6 64.0 36.0 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 2.9 9.0 4.8 59.2 52.7 30.1 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.6 9.1 5.5 79.2 60.3 31.5 3.4 6.4 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 6.8 17.9 7.7 74.0 55.6 36.6 7.0 14.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.9 9.4 4.4 66.6 54.4 31.9 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------