***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 17.1 17.3 20.6 1.8 78.7 77.4 15.0 15.8 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 17.0 17.4 20.4 2.0 80.8 79.4 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 19.1 19.1 20.3 1.4 73.9 73.1 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 14.2 14.2 17.3 0.8 65.2 64.4 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 15.3 15.2 17.8 0.8 66.0 65.5 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 93 7 100 13.6 13.5 14.2 0.0 50.1 50.2 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 17.1 17.4 20.6 1.9 79.7 78.3 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 9.2 9.6 14.8 0.5 61.1 60.7 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.4 17.9 0.8 67.3 66.7 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 15.7 16.2 15.9 0.7 63.9 63.3 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 15.4 15.6 17.0 0.4 58.0 57.8 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 13.6 13.8 15.9 0.5 60.2 59.9 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 14.8 14.5 15.3 -0.1 47.4 47.8 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 17.0 17.0 17.6 1.0 69.3 68.5 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 16.9 17.2 18.9 0.5 61.0 60.5 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 16.1 16.1 16.1 0.1 51.9 52.0 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 17.5 18.0 20.4 2.2 83.9 82.3 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 14.1 14.6 15.2 0.7 64.3 63.8 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 16.9 17.1 20.2 1.7 78.0 76.7 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 10.0 10.5 13.2 0.6 63.4 62.9 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 15.6 16.1 19.0 0.8 65.1 64.7 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 16.3 16.6 20.3 1.9 80.9 79.4 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 16.3 16.5 20.0 1.6 76.4 75.4 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 16.7 16.6 17.5 0.8 66.6 66.0 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 16.8 16.7 19.3 1.3 71.3 70.5 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 14.9 14.6 14.3 -0.2 45.3 45.9 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 17.4 17.5 19.8 1.6 75.1 74.0 14.7 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 14.7 14.8 17.2 0.3 55.6 55.3 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 13.8 13.8 14.5 0.8 66.5 65.9 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 17.3 17.6 20.6 1.8 78.8 77.4 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------