***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.6 19.2 1.3 70.9 68.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 46 54 100 16.1 16.3 19.0 1.2 69.5 66.9 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 18.8 18.9 19.2 1.1 68.4 66.3 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 14.9 14.9 16.6 1.0 67.8 65.7 12.8 13.9 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 14.8 14.7 16.7 0.9 65.4 64.0 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 13.7 13.6 14.2 0.7 65.0 63.5 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 16.6 16.7 19.2 1.3 70.3 67.6 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 9.9 9.8 14.1 0.8 65.1 64.1 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 16.0 16.0 16.7 0.9 66.5 65.0 14.5 15.3 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 15.8 15.8 15.0 0.8 65.6 64.3 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 15.4 15.3 16.1 0.8 65.9 64.7 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 13.5 13.4 15.1 0.9 66.0 64.8 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 14.6 14.5 14.7 0.7 64.8 63.3 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 16.4 16.5 16.6 1.0 67.7 65.9 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 17.0 17.0 17.9 0.9 67.1 65.4 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.3 15.5 0.8 64.5 63.3 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 16.8 17.0 18.7 1.2 70.4 67.6 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 14.2 14.2 14.3 0.9 67.5 65.9 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 15.7 16.2 18.8 1.1 67.7 65.5 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 10.1 10.0 12.2 0.7 64.8 63.7 8.9 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 15.2 15.5 17.9 0.8 64.6 63.3 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 15.1 15.6 18.6 1.0 67.4 65.0 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.1 15.6 18.7 1.1 67.8 65.7 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 16.1 16.2 16.5 1.0 68.5 66.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 16.0 16.0 17.8 1.0 66.3 64.7 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 14.9 14.9 14.4 0.9 67.6 65.9 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 16.7 16.8 18.5 1.2 69.1 66.9 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 14.6 14.5 16.7 0.8 64.5 63.1 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 14.0 14.0 13.6 0.9 66.9 65.5 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 16.6 16.7 19.3 1.2 69.5 67.0 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------