***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.0 18.3 1.0 66.1 63.8 14.3 15.2 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 15.9 16.1 18.3 1.2 69.0 66.3 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 18.4 18.3 18.4 0.9 65.8 64.0 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 14.3 14.1 15.8 0.9 65.7 63.7 12.0 13.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 14.1 13.8 15.4 0.6 61.2 60.0 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 13.2 13.0 13.7 0.6 61.8 60.4 11.8 12.5 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.3 18.4 1.2 69.1 66.4 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.6 8.8 13.2 0.5 59.4 58.7 7.3 8.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.0 15.2 15.5 0.6 61.0 59.9 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.9 14.0 0.5 60.5 59.6 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 14.7 14.4 14.9 0.6 62.4 61.2 13.2 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 13.0 12.7 14.0 0.6 61.6 60.5 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.8 13.4 0.5 60.9 59.8 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.8 15.7 0.7 63.4 62.2 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 16.7 16.6 17.2 1.0 69.1 66.7 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 15.9 15.7 14.5 0.7 63.4 61.9 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 16.4 16.6 18.1 1.2 70.0 67.1 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 13.6 13.4 13.3 0.7 63.4 62.2 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 15.9 15.9 18.2 1.0 67.5 65.2 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.1 11.0 0.4 58.1 57.7 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 15.2 14.9 17.0 0.6 60.6 59.5 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 15.2 15.3 17.9 1.1 68.4 65.9 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 15.3 15.2 17.9 0.9 65.5 63.8 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 15.7 15.5 15.5 0.8 65.3 63.8 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 15.5 15.2 16.6 0.7 61.9 60.4 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 14.5 14.4 13.5 0.8 65.0 63.1 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 16.4 16.2 17.4 0.9 64.8 62.7 14.0 15.1 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.0 16.1 0.8 65.4 63.5 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.2 12.6 0.5 60.5 59.8 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 16.5 16.5 18.5 1.1 68.9 66.2 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------