***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 14.0 14.4 17.2 0.7 62.9 59.2 12.8 13.7 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 14.4 14.3 17.1 0.8 65.7 61.4 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.3 17.4 0.6 62.7 59.4 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.8 14.7 0.6 63.1 59.5 9.8 10.9 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.7 14.3 0.3 56.5 54.9 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.8 12.7 0.3 57.1 55.7 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 14.6 14.6 17.3 0.9 66.4 61.9 12.7 13.7 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.1 12.3 0.2 54.0 54.2 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.7 14.4 0.2 55.2 54.2 12.6 13.4 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.5 13.0 0.2 54.4 54.1 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.4 13.8 0.3 56.8 55.5 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.7 13.0 0.2 55.4 55.0 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.7 12.4 0.2 53.8 53.3 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.4 14.6 0.4 58.3 56.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 15.0 15.5 16.1 0.8 66.5 62.0 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.3 13.4 0.3 57.2 55.5 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 14.9 14.9 17.0 0.9 67.9 63.4 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.2 12.2 0.3 57.0 56.1 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.3 17.1 0.7 64.5 60.6 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.2 10.1 0.1 53.4 53.9 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.5 15.9 0.3 56.0 54.6 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.8 16.8 0.8 66.4 62.1 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.7 16.8 0.6 63.1 59.8 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.0 14.4 0.5 60.2 58.2 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.9 15.7 0.5 59.1 56.7 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.0 12.5 0.4 59.5 58.0 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.3 16.4 0.6 61.7 58.4 12.4 13.5 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.2 15.0 0.6 63.3 59.5 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.1 11.6 0.2 55.5 55.2 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.6 17.4 0.8 65.4 61.1 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------