***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 15.8 16.0 18.8 1.2 78.1 76.0 14.6 15.1 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 15.6 15.9 18.7 1.3 79.9 77.3 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 17.9 18.0 18.8 1.0 74.9 73.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 13.6 13.7 16.1 0.8 72.1 70.4 12.2 12.8 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.0 14.0 16.1 0.6 68.1 66.6 13.1 13.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 12.8 13.0 13.7 0.4 63.1 62.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 15.9 16.1 18.9 1.3 79.3 76.9 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 8.8 8.8 13.6 0.5 64.6 63.6 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 15.3 15.3 16.1 0.6 68.6 67.2 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 15.1 15.1 14.5 0.6 66.5 65.3 14.2 14.6 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 14.7 14.7 15.5 0.5 66.0 64.7 13.8 14.2 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 12.9 12.9 14.5 0.5 66.0 64.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 13.7 13.9 14.0 0.3 61.3 60.3 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 15.8 15.9 16.1 0.8 71.8 70.2 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.6 17.5 0.8 72.6 70.8 15.3 15.8 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 15.3 15.6 14.9 0.5 64.3 63.1 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 16.1 16.4 18.5 1.4 82.1 79.3 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 13.5 13.6 13.8 0.6 69.5 68.1 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 15.6 15.8 18.6 1.1 77.5 75.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 9.2 9.4 11.6 0.5 65.3 64.1 8.7 9.1 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 14.6 14.9 17.5 0.6 66.9 65.6 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 15.0 15.2 18.4 1.2 78.9 76.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 14.9 15.1 18.3 1.0 75.8 73.9 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 15.5 15.6 16.0 0.8 72.2 70.7 14.5 14.9 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 15.2 15.3 17.4 0.9 71.5 69.7 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 14.3 14.2 13.7 0.5 65.4 64.1 13.4 13.9 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 15.8 15.9 18.1 1.1 75.5 73.5 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 14.0 14.1 16.2 0.6 67.9 66.4 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 13.0 13.0 13.1 0.6 68.3 67.1 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 16.0 16.2 18.9 1.2 78.7 76.4 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------