***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 30.3 30.3 31.1 1.5 68.2 67.2 28.0 29.1 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 30.1 30.1 31.2 1.5 67.3 66.4 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 29.1 29.8 30.9 1.2 63.8 63.1 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 22.1 22.0 26.9 0.2 51.9 51.7 20.7 21.9 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 29.7 29.7 28.1 0.2 52.9 52.8 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 95 5 100 28.1 28.0 25.3 0.0 49.8 49.8 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 29.9 30.0 31.3 1.7 69.9 68.7 27.7 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 94 6 100 17.5 17.4 25.5 0.0 49.7 49.8 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 29.0 29.2 28.9 0.4 54.9 54.7 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 93 7 100 28.8 28.8 26.6 0.1 51.7 51.6 27.6 28.7 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 94 6 100 29.2 29.3 28.4 0.3 53.7 53.5 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 95 5 100 28.3 28.2 26.8 0.0 50.4 50.4 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 96 4 100 29.5 29.6 27.8 0.2 52.7 52.6 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 29.0 29.4 28.9 0.9 60.5 59.9 27.7 28.8 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 29.9 29.9 29.3 0.1 51.9 51.8 28.7 29.8 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 96 4 100 30.2 30.2 27.7 0.1 51.0 51.0 28.9 30.1 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 29.6 29.9 31.3 2.0 73.5 72.0 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 93 7 100 27.9 28.0 25.9 0.3 53.8 53.6 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 28.8 29.4 30.8 1.1 62.6 61.9 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 95 5 100 23.8 23.8 23.6 0.1 51.1 51.1 22.7 23.7 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 29.2 29.4 30.0 0.6 56.6 56.3 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 30.0 30.0 30.8 1.5 67.5 66.3 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 28.9 29.3 30.4 0.9 60.8 60.3 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 28.6 28.9 28.6 0.7 58.4 58.0 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 29.5 29.8 29.0 0.7 58.0 57.6 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 95 5 100 29.2 29.0 26.3 -0.1 48.9 49.0 28.0 29.1 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 29.1 29.7 30.0 1.2 64.1 63.3 27.8 28.8 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 29.8 29.5 27.6 -0.1 48.4 48.5 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 23.3 23.5 25.2 0.4 54.9 54.7 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 29.9 29.8 31.2 1.4 66.3 65.5 27.8 28.9 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------