***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 30.2 30.8 30.1 1.0 62.0 60.8 28.6 29.9 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 29.8 30.2 30.1 0.8 59.0 57.9 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 29.8 29.9 29.8 0.5 56.0 55.3 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 23.1 23.1 27.2 0.4 54.8 54.6 21.3 22.7 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 30.6 30.1 27.4 -0.2 48.0 48.4 28.9 30.3 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 29.1 28.8 25.1 0.0 50.4 50.7 27.4 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 29.5 30.0 30.2 1.0 61.6 60.2 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 18.2 17.5 25.1 -0.4 45.0 45.7 16.6 17.9 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 29.8 29.3 27.8 -0.2 47.1 47.5 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 29.6 28.8 26.0 -0.4 44.8 45.4 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 30.1 29.6 27.4 -0.2 47.7 48.2 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 29.4 28.9 26.6 -0.2 47.3 47.9 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 30.6 29.9 26.7 -0.3 46.8 47.6 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 29.5 28.9 27.2 -0.3 46.2 46.6 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 30.7 30.9 29.2 0.6 58.2 57.6 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 31.2 30.7 27.2 -0.1 49.1 49.6 29.4 30.8 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 29.1 29.7 29.9 1.0 61.7 60.1 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 28.6 27.9 25.2 -0.4 45.0 45.6 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 29.4 29.6 29.8 0.5 55.5 54.9 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 24.7 23.8 22.9 -0.5 43.8 44.5 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 29.9 29.5 28.8 0.0 49.5 49.8 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 29.7 30.0 29.5 0.7 57.5 56.4 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 29.5 29.4 29.4 0.3 53.0 52.7 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 29.2 28.6 27.3 -0.2 47.1 47.5 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 30.1 30.1 28.1 0.3 53.5 53.4 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 30.2 29.9 26.6 0.2 51.9 52.1 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 29.7 30.0 29.0 0.7 58.7 57.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 30.7 30.6 27.8 0.3 53.6 53.6 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 24.1 23.2 24.3 -0.5 44.3 44.9 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 29.7 30.1 30.1 0.8 59.1 58.1 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------