***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 26.7 26.7 27.9 0.5 56.9 55.7 24.6 26.1 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 26.6 26.9 28.2 0.8 60.2 58.5 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.5 28.1 0.4 55.5 54.5 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 19.8 19.4 25.7 0.1 50.8 50.5 17.9 19.3 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 27.4 26.4 25.5 -0.5 44.2 45.3 25.4 26.8 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 26.3 25.3 23.2 -0.4 43.8 44.6 24.5 25.8 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.7 28.2 0.8 60.8 58.8 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.7 14.8 23.7 -0.5 44.1 45.2 13.9 15.2 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 26.7 25.7 25.6 -0.5 44.2 45.3 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 26.8 25.7 24.3 -0.5 44.2 45.3 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.2 25.3 -0.4 45.4 46.1 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 26.6 25.6 25.0 -0.4 44.6 45.5 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 25.3 26.2 24.2 -0.8 40.2 41.8 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 26.6 25.9 25.4 -0.1 49.2 49.7 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 27.5 27.4 26.7 0.4 55.0 53.5 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.1 25.1 -0.4 44.7 45.5 26.1 27.6 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 25.9 26.3 28.0 0.9 61.7 59.9 23.9 25.3 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 25.7 24.9 23.9 -0.3 46.3 47.1 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 26.4 26.6 28.2 0.7 59.0 57.5 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.0 20.9 21.3 -0.5 43.2 44.7 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.0 26.7 -0.2 46.9 47.7 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 26.3 26.7 27.9 0.9 60.9 59.4 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.5 27.9 0.6 57.0 55.8 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.3 25.6 25.5 -0.1 48.8 49.2 24.2 25.7 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 26.9 26.3 25.8 -0.1 49.2 49.5 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 27.3 26.6 25.0 -0.1 48.0 48.3 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.3 26.9 0.3 54.5 53.8 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 27.5 27.1 25.9 0.0 50.5 50.1 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.3 20.3 22.9 -0.3 45.7 46.7 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.7 28.2 0.8 59.6 57.8 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------