***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.3 9.3 6.7 77.1 56.9 38.0 3.3 7.1 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.8 9.3 5.9 71.0 55.6 40.1 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.8 7.3 5.4 64.7 53.1 36.8 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.8 7.9 4.9 47.5 44.4 34.5 4.8 9.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.9 4.8 4.3 43.9 43.2 31.5 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 4.1 5.3 4.4 38.6 37.8 32.1 4.2 8.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.1 5.6 66.4 53.6 39.1 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.6 13.5 8.6 69.7 53.7 44.5 6.8 12.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.1 7.8 5.1 53.5 47.7 34.2 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.2 10.8 8.1 63.0 50.9 40.7 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 5.2 7.1 3.7 38.3 40.4 31.0 5.5 9.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.5 7.0 5.2 54.4 47.3 38.5 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 2.4 2.9 2.8 31.0 34.6 26.8 2.7 6.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.2 10.2 8.2 69.0 55.1 43.3 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.1 8.6 5.2 63.3 52.2 38.9 3.6 7.9 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.3 4.8 3.6 37.4 39.5 29.7 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.0 7.2 79.3 58.9 43.8 4.0 8.1 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.5 10.7 10.3 73.3 54.5 44.8 5.3 9.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.3 8.5 5.7 68.2 54.2 39.0 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.3 13.1 88.9 60.2 50.4 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 4.1 9.2 5.5 60.1 51.2 35.7 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.6 9.8 6.2 66.0 53.9 39.3 4.8 8.8 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.5 7.5 5.7 64.7 53.0 38.6 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.1 11.5 6.9 61.1 50.6 39.0 5.7 11.2 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 3.2 6.5 5.0 49.5 45.7 29.5 3.8 7.6 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.6 9.5 6.0 78.0 57.3 42.1 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 3.4 7.7 6.2 65.4 52.1 33.7 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.2 5.8 5.1 52.1 47.0 36.2 2.9 6.7 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 14.8 10.9 77.0 55.9 46.7 7.4 12.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.9 6.6 5.7 72.4 56.1 38.9 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------