***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.0 12.0 12.8 114.7 69.8 58.9 2.2 5.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 11.1 12.7 12.3 130.2 73.3 61.8 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.2 12.6 11.8 106.6 67.2 57.8 3.1 6.7 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.8 10.4 11.3 116.0 70.0 57.0 1.9 4.5 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 4.5 6.4 10.9 111.0 68.8 58.5 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.1 9.0 11.8 111.3 68.9 55.0 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.1 9.8 11.9 128.2 72.9 60.4 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 15.2 17.1 14.4 130.8 73.3 62.7 4.0 8.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.1 8.7 11.8 113.4 69.3 57.7 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 9.4 14.2 13.7 118.4 70.3 58.9 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 4.4 6.7 12.3 118.2 70.1 60.5 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.0 7.5 11.0 124.8 71.7 60.5 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 4.7 9.7 12.0 140.5 75.5 63.2 1.4 3.5 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.5 14.8 15.0 107.5 67.1 55.4 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.8 8.3 8.4 105.4 67.5 46.1 1.6 4.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 4.7 8.0 10.6 121.0 70.9 59.3 1.4 3.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.1 8.2 12.0 134.7 74.3 58.9 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 9.7 12.0 18.0 143.3 76.0 66.1 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.0 10.6 11.9 120.7 70.7 59.0 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 13.4 17.7 19.0 154.0 78.5 68.5 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.2 12.5 12.3 115.4 69.8 59.1 2.4 5.6 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.6 9.5 11.9 134.7 74.1 59.1 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.7 9.2 11.3 100.6 65.2 53.8 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.1 16.0 16.0 126.7 72.1 61.0 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.1 10.2 14.0 121.3 71.3 60.8 1.7 4.3 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.4 6.4 9.5 122.7 70.7 52.0 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 9.3 14.2 13.6 114.5 69.5 58.6 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.8 7.1 9.8 113.8 69.7 52.9 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 13.8 17.5 20.2 149.3 77.4 68.0 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.7 13.0 11.6 116.1 69.9 58.1 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------