***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.4 13.6 16.2 164.4 80.0 51.1 2.4 4.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.4 15.1 13.8 148.5 77.2 48.7 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.0 16.7 15.6 156.4 78.6 51.7 3.0 6.0 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.0 22.7 17.3 187.4 83.2 55.4 2.7 6.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.1 11.8 14.7 168.4 80.4 55.4 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 11.5 17.2 18.5 183.3 82.7 63.1 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.9 24.1 15.0 164.1 79.9 50.6 2.8 6.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.0 26.0 15.9 154.7 78.3 59.3 4.2 9.2 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.4 16.6 14.2 150.2 77.5 52.7 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.3 14.0 16.4 146.5 76.8 55.6 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.7 13.2 12.3 147.7 77.0 54.7 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.8 11.0 12.5 156.5 78.6 58.4 2.1 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 8.9 13.8 15.4 188.9 83.5 61.9 2.4 4.5 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.4 20.6 18.0 129.4 73.2 50.1 4.0 8.8 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.7 15.9 16.2 214.2 86.2 55.1 1.6 3.5 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.4 14.6 14.2 180.8 82.3 58.4 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.2 20.0 13.4 154.4 78.3 49.4 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 17.1 23.8 20.1 162.1 79.5 57.8 3.3 7.3 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.7 18.3 13.7 142.6 76.1 48.3 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.1 22.0 19.9 161.1 79.0 62.7 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.2 18.2 15.4 167.4 80.3 51.8 2.2 5.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.3 24.3 14.1 154.3 78.3 52.5 5.1 9.7 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.2 15.1 13.8 131.9 73.8 48.1 3.2 6.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.0 15.0 17.2 144.2 76.3 52.7 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.5 16.2 18.8 185.0 82.9 55.1 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.8 14.3 12.4 174.3 81.4 58.8 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.6 19.9 17.4 165.3 80.0 52.4 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.4 17.0 16.5 198.9 84.4 57.5 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.4 24.6 20.5 158.7 79.0 59.4 3.7 8.2 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.5 12.6 15.0 155.3 78.4 50.2 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------