***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 4.4 19.3 13.3 130.7 73.6 44.9 4.4 8.7 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.8 16.2 10.6 105.4 67.2 44.7 5.0 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.9 22.8 13.1 122.5 71.9 46.9 4.6 10.1 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.0 22.3 14.1 128.5 73.6 49.4 4.7 9.8 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.3 23.8 13.6 131.1 73.9 49.9 5.0 10.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.3 16.2 15.5 121.0 72.0 52.3 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.0 11.7 11.4 111.4 69.1 45.0 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.1 31.6 16.3 131.2 73.6 53.2 9.3 16.1 25.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 5.5 22.5 13.8 122.0 71.8 48.4 4.9 10.5 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.9 26.1 16.5 124.6 72.1 50.7 6.6 12.6 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.7 20.5 13.0 130.8 73.8 50.7 4.6 9.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.6 18.6 13.5 133.0 74.2 52.0 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.3 21.7 14.7 139.2 75.6 52.2 4.8 9.3 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.5 21.3 14.6 96.4 64.7 46.0 7.0 13.4 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.9 9.3 11.4 115.4 70.9 44.2 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.6 20.1 12.8 128.7 73.5 51.2 4.1 8.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 4.4 13.4 10.5 103.3 66.7 43.6 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 18.5 18.0 116.7 70.0 51.2 5.5 10.1 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.0 13.2 10.9 105.0 67.1 44.8 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.3 22.1 18.1 115.4 69.2 53.6 6.9 12.6 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.2 19.7 13.4 126.9 72.8 47.1 3.8 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 5.4 16.0 10.9 103.3 66.3 43.4 5.8 10.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.9 16.7 11.6 101.7 66.2 44.1 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.8 25.7 15.7 112.8 69.2 49.5 7.0 13.5 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.4 23.4 14.9 136.7 75.0 47.9 3.9 9.0 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.9 17.6 13.4 144.7 76.7 51.8 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.8 21.1 14.5 135.3 74.6 46.5 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.1 13.4 12.8 121.9 72.2 49.0 3.4 6.4 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.3 28.3 18.2 114.6 69.2 51.8 7.0 14.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 4.1 14.8 11.6 113.7 69.5 44.6 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------