***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 44.3 57.4 49.0 122.9 70.3 58.6 22.8 35.9 52.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 45.6 55.5 42.5 114.9 67.2 56.8 27.6 39.7 54.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 51.3 62.1 45.8 114.3 66.8 56.7 31.3 45.1 61.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 55.1 65.7 47.6 118.3 68.5 56.5 35.6 48.3 63.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 37.8 45.9 43.4 112.4 66.2 57.0 19.6 31.1 45.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 44.9 51.6 50.2 111.8 65.4 57.0 26.6 38.4 52.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 39.2 49.2 43.9 118.2 68.5 56.9 22.4 33.5 46.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 71.1 85.2 55.2 119.4 69.0 61.5 48.0 63.8 81.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 48.8 56.6 44.9 110.3 65.1 55.3 28.4 41.5 57.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 58.5 65.6 54.7 112.2 65.8 57.4 41.6 53.2 65.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 43.0 48.9 41.4 108.7 64.4 57.0 27.4 38.0 50.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 38.6 45.4 42.2 115.8 67.5 59.8 25.4 34.3 44.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 41.3 53.2 44.9 123.4 70.4 60.4 23.2 34.8 48.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 41.0 66.5 55.8 101.7 60.3 52.8 41.6 56.2 73.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 35.0 46.9 41.3 122.5 70.2 55.6 17.1 28.2 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 41.1 47.4 41.2 114.1 66.7 57.2 26.4 36.0 46.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 44.1 52.7 43.1 117.1 68.1 57.5 29.1 39.4 50.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 62.8 63.8 66.5 122.5 70.3 61.5 34.5 46.2 59.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 44.5 52.2 42.2 110.4 65.1 55.4 25.0 37.7 53.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 68.0 72.3 70.2 127.0 72.8 64.4 38.4 50.9 64.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 51.1 61.4 46.5 117.9 68.2 57.5 30.5 43.5 58.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 50.6 58.0 43.2 113.6 66.5 56.0 35.4 46.0 57.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 46.3 48.5 42.4 101.2 60.5 52.2 26.6 39.2 54.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 65.0 72.9 55.7 112.3 65.7 57.1 42.9 57.2 73.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 57.8 58.1 52.7 123.3 70.4 58.0 28.2 39.9 53.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 36.7 50.0 41.3 129.8 72.7 60.8 20.1 30.5 43.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 30.4 63.8 51.6 121.2 69.6 57.3 31.2 44.2 59.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 36.3 45.9 44.2 118.6 68.7 56.7 20.0 30.4 43.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 83.5 86.5 69.8 123.8 71.1 62.7 47.2 62.7 79.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 39.9 47.5 43.9 116.3 67.7 56.4 25.3 35.2 46.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------