***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 17.0 18.2 21.2 2.8 91.3 86.5 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.9 19.8 1.6 77.6 71.8 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 19.0 19.9 20.9 2.3 87.1 82.3 17.2 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 14.9 16.2 18.8 2.7 92.2 89.5 12.6 13.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 15.7 17.0 19.5 2.9 93.4 90.3 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 14.5 16.0 16.8 2.9 96.1 94.1 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 16.8 17.4 20.2 1.8 80.4 74.9 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 10.3 11.3 16.2 2.3 90.2 86.9 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 1 99 100 16.9 18.6 19.9 3.2 96.8 93.8 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 16.6 17.4 17.4 2.4 91.2 87.8 14.9 15.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 16.3 17.7 19.3 3.0 95.5 93.0 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 14.4 15.5 17.9 2.8 94.3 91.9 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 15.7 17.4 18.1 3.0 96.8 95.3 13.8 14.5 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 16.9 17.4 18.0 1.6 82.8 77.6 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.9 20.2 21.8 3.9 98.8 97.8 16.0 16.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 17.1 18.7 18.8 3.1 96.8 95.0 15.3 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 16.9 17.1 19.0 1.1 70.4 65.7 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 15.1 15.9 16.1 1.9 86.3 83.0 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 16.6 17.1 20.0 1.7 79.5 74.0 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 10.8 11.4 14.2 1.8 86.0 82.7 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 16.6 17.9 20.7 2.9 94.1 90.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.8 19.1 0.9 66.6 63.0 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 16.1 16.8 20.2 2.1 85.1 79.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 16.9 17.5 18.3 1.9 86.7 82.3 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 16.9 18.4 20.6 3.0 92.5 88.5 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 15.7 17.2 17.2 3.0 96.1 94.3 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 17.2 18.7 20.8 2.9 91.3 86.6 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 15.7 17.2 19.8 3.3 95.3 93.6 13.7 14.5 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 14.1 14.6 15.1 1.6 83.4 80.0 12.4 13.1 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 17.0 17.7 20.5 2.0 82.7 77.1 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------