***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.3 18.7 0.9 66.8 61.9 14.9 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 15.7 15.9 18.0 0.4 57.8 55.3 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.9 18.9 0.9 67.4 62.3 17.2 18.0 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.8 16.3 0.7 64.4 59.7 12.9 13.9 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.7 16.7 0.9 67.6 62.1 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 12.3 13.3 13.9 0.3 56.2 54.0 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.3 18.4 0.6 61.2 58.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.8 14.1 0.7 65.0 59.4 8.2 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.4 16.0 16.8 1.0 69.8 63.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.6 15.0 0.7 64.2 59.3 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 15.3 15.2 16.2 0.9 67.9 61.9 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.4 15.2 0.8 66.5 60.7 12.1 12.7 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 13.0 14.1 14.5 0.3 56.5 54.0 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.1 16.1 0.4 59.1 56.6 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 17.0 17.2 18.1 1.0 70.2 64.2 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.8 16.3 15.6 0.7 64.2 59.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.3 16.4 17.7 0.4 58.1 55.9 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 12.5 13.7 13.9 0.4 58.9 56.3 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.8 16.0 18.2 0.6 61.3 58.0 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.7 12.0 0.3 57.3 54.9 8.8 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.6 18.1 1.0 69.2 63.5 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.3 17.9 0.5 60.0 57.8 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.7 18.5 0.9 67.7 62.6 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.9 16.2 0.6 62.7 59.0 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.9 17.7 0.9 66.5 61.5 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 13.6 14.5 13.9 0.3 56.3 53.9 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.6 18.0 0.8 65.1 60.6 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.5 16.8 0.8 66.7 61.5 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.3 13.7 13.2 0.4 58.1 55.6 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.4 18.5 0.7 62.1 58.5 15.0 15.9 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------