***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 16.1 17.2 19.7 2.4 86.4 77.0 14.0 14.9 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 15.9 16.6 19.0 1.9 81.3 72.4 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 18.5 19.7 19.9 2.4 87.5 78.1 16.2 17.1 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 14.1 15.1 17.1 2.0 83.9 75.9 11.8 12.8 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 14.3 15.2 17.0 2.0 85.1 77.3 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.2 13.6 14.8 1.5 79.6 72.6 11.7 12.4 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 16.1 17.0 19.4 2.2 84.4 75.6 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 9.3 10.2 14.8 1.8 84.9 77.7 7.0 7.9 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 15.8 16.8 17.2 2.1 86.3 77.8 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 15.4 16.2 15.5 1.8 84.3 76.3 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 14.9 15.7 16.4 1.9 84.9 77.6 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 13.2 13.9 15.5 1.9 84.9 77.8 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.4 14.5 1.3 76.5 69.9 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 16.2 16.8 16.7 1.7 82.7 73.9 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 16.7 17.5 18.2 2.0 84.1 76.1 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 15.9 16.6 15.7 1.7 81.5 74.4 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 16.4 17.0 18.6 1.8 80.5 71.9 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 13.7 14.4 14.4 1.6 82.0 73.9 11.8 12.7 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 16.0 16.6 19.1 2.0 82.7 73.3 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 9.5 10.0 12.2 1.4 79.5 72.3 8.0 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 15.4 16.4 18.7 2.2 86.6 77.6 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 15.2 15.8 18.6 1.8 81.6 72.9 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 15.3 16.2 19.2 2.2 86.3 76.2 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 15.8 16.6 16.7 1.9 84.4 75.8 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 15.5 16.4 18.2 2.2 84.7 75.8 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 14.5 14.9 14.4 1.4 78.1 70.7 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 16.4 17.7 18.9 2.3 85.7 76.4 13.7 14.9 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 14.2 14.9 17.2 1.9 83.7 75.9 12.5 13.2 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 13.6 14.4 13.8 1.5 81.6 74.1 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 16.4 17.4 19.5 2.2 84.5 75.4 14.2 15.1 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------