***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 14.4 14.6 17.9 1.2 71.4 63.5 12.5 13.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.5 14.0 17.4 0.8 65.2 58.5 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.8 18.2 1.3 74.4 65.6 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 11.8 12.0 15.4 1.1 71.6 65.5 9.5 10.6 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 13.3 13.6 15.6 1.3 74.5 67.3 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 12.2 12.4 13.5 1.0 72.0 66.5 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.8 14.4 17.7 1.0 68.1 60.5 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 7.8 8.0 13.4 1.1 73.4 67.0 5.7 6.7 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 14.3 14.6 15.7 1.3 75.3 67.6 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 14.1 14.3 14.1 1.1 72.1 65.8 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 13.9 14.2 15.0 1.3 75.2 68.6 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 12.3 12.7 14.2 1.3 76.1 69.3 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.3 13.4 13.3 1.0 70.2 65.5 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.7 15.4 0.9 68.9 62.8 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.7 16.8 1.3 75.1 68.3 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 14.8 15.2 14.4 1.2 74.2 68.2 12.8 13.8 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.2 16.9 0.6 61.8 56.2 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 12.6 12.7 13.1 0.9 69.7 64.2 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.7 14.2 17.5 0.9 67.3 60.3 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 8.9 8.9 10.9 0.8 67.7 62.9 7.1 8.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 13.9 14.3 17.2 1.3 74.6 66.3 12.1 12.9 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.4 16.9 0.7 63.5 58.1 11.9 12.8 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.2 14.0 17.6 1.2 72.1 64.1 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 14.2 14.4 15.3 1.1 72.0 65.2 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 14.3 14.4 16.5 1.1 70.6 63.7 12.3 13.3 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.4 13.4 13.2 1.0 70.6 66.0 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 14.5 14.7 17.2 1.1 70.7 63.2 12.2 13.3 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 13.2 13.5 15.7 1.2 73.3 67.2 11.2 12.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.7 12.5 0.9 69.2 63.6 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.6 17.8 1.1 69.4 61.6 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------