***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 15.7 16.4 19.4 1.8 89.0 83.5 14.4 14.9 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 15.4 15.7 18.5 1.2 79.0 73.6 14.1 14.7 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 17.8 18.5 19.5 1.7 88.4 83.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 13.7 14.4 16.9 1.6 88.4 84.0 12.1 12.7 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 14.2 14.9 17.2 1.8 90.8 86.2 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 13.1 13.6 14.7 1.4 88.6 84.5 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 15.7 16.1 18.9 1.4 82.1 76.6 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 9.0 9.6 14.6 1.5 88.6 83.8 7.7 8.2 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 15.5 16.3 17.4 1.9 93.4 88.7 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 15.2 15.7 15.5 1.5 88.7 83.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 14.9 15.6 16.7 1.8 91.8 87.5 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 13.1 13.7 15.7 1.7 91.3 87.0 12.0 12.4 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 14.1 14.7 15.1 1.4 88.8 84.6 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 15.7 16.1 16.5 1.2 83.4 77.6 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 16.7 17.6 18.7 2.0 93.6 90.2 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 15.8 16.5 16.1 1.7 91.3 87.3 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 15.8 16.0 18.1 1.0 75.2 70.3 14.9 15.3 15.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 13.6 14.0 14.4 1.2 84.9 79.6 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 15.4 15.7 18.7 1.3 81.4 75.9 14.5 14.9 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 9.5 9.8 12.3 1.1 83.7 78.5 8.6 9.0 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 15.0 15.7 18.7 1.9 91.5 86.4 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 14.7 14.9 18.1 1.0 75.3 70.6 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 14.8 15.3 18.9 1.6 87.1 81.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 15.5 16.0 16.6 1.4 86.7 81.3 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 15.2 15.8 18.2 1.8 89.1 83.9 14.1 14.6 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 14.4 14.9 14.7 1.4 89.0 84.8 13.3 13.7 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 15.7 16.3 18.7 1.8 88.6 83.0 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 14.2 15.0 17.4 1.8 91.0 87.3 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 13.0 13.4 13.7 1.1 83.2 77.9 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 15.8 16.2 19.1 1.5 83.6 78.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------